As with a lot of Apple product introductions, Apple likes to keep people guessing up to the very last minute. This year, with a longer than usual wait for a new iteration of the unbelievably successful iPhone, interest is just as high as ever.
In brief, here’s the prediction: Apple will make an announcement no sooner than September 21st where they will introduce a revised iPod nano with camera, give details for the iOS 5 release, announce a new low-cost iPhone and unveil the new voice-controlled iPhone 5.
September 27
The date that makes the most sense for these announcements is September 27, though it could come as soon as the 21st. There is a tendency for these announcements to the first Tuesday of the new fiscal quarter, but there are plenty of exceptions. Apple also stated at this years’ WWDC — and currently posts on the apple.com site — that iOS is coming this fall, and fall begins on September 23rd, a Friday. It is also possible that an announcement could come on the 21st, but iOS would not be available until the following week, when fall begins. Apple has done this in the past three iPhone/iOS announcements.
What will be covered
If anyone hadn’t noticed, Apple likes to do things in threes. Especially when it comes to announcements. They almost fanatically stick to a rule for three agenda items in announcements, even going so far as to announce products in the week before a media event so as not to have four items. So when it comes closer to keynote time and pundits start shoveling heaps of product announcements into the agenda, remember – just three things.
With three slots to fill for this event, it’s reasonably clear what will be unveiled. iPhone 5, the low-cost iPhone, and the iPod nano. They’ve covered iOS 5 at WWDC, but they will likely talk about it further, in passing, when discussing the new iPhones features.
It is also possible that the nano might drop off the list, and be just a press release announcement if the agenda gets too heavy for the event. iPhones will dominate the news reports anyway.
iPod nano
The nano is slowly becoming irrelevant due to the iCloud service and other advanced features in the high-end Apple devices. A device that “just plays music” still has some value to users, but more people have smart phones and want to reduce the number of devices they carry. It’s been a slow process, but consumers are coming around to this way of thinking. In a few years, the iPod may be just a memory. However, there has been enough evidence of a camera upgrade to conclude that the device will be updated this year. It might be easy to dismiss a camera on the nano as a gimmicky addition, but if you think about the convenience of having such a tiny device giving you a ready camera wherever you go, the nano becomes an attractive choice for vacationers and those out exercising who want to leave the phone behind. Don’t be shocked if Apple updates the color schemes as well.
If Apple brings the price down, it may spell the end for the shuffle. A $49 shuffle against a $99 nano might give Apple reason to simplify the product line. However, theres’s really no sign of a big price drop fro the nano, and that seems to favor at least another year for the shuffle, but with no significant upgrades.
The Low Cost iPhone
Previously, Apple has retained last years’ iPhone model and slotted it into a $99 price point when the new iPhone is introduced at $199/$299. This year will be different. A new phone, we’ll call it the “low cost” iPhone for now, or iPhone LC, will be introduced. This is what many have dubbed the “4S.” The new iPhone LC will rely on an iCloud solution to media control, reducing the on-board flash memory down to minimal levels. The largest component costs for Apple’s handheld devices is flash memory, and reducing it can save the most money. The screen is the second most costly component, and money might also be saved there. This iPhone LC is most definitely a redesigned iPhone 4. There has been plenty of evidence that an iPhone 4-styled design is coming, from Chinese cases and parts suppliers to US spy shots of the device.
The one aspect that hasn’t been mentioned much is that it could replace the iPod touch.
In iSuppli’s examination of the component costs of the iPhone 4 and that of the iPod Touch, the two devices are about $30 away from each other. Although 3rd party examinations of Apple component costs are subject to many variables, we can still use them as loose guidelines. Given Apple’s high margins, the difference may be more.
If that price difference has been narrowed, the component cost of the iPhone starts to match that of the iPod Touch. With a retail price of $229, the current iPod Touch can be supplanted in the product line by the iPhone LC. By merging the iPod Touch and iPhone, it creates a number of positives for both Apple and the consumer. This new iPhone can be sold contract-free at a reasonable $229 or $249 for the large world-wide post-paid phone market, and also be available on-contract for much lower or even “free” terms. As Tim Cook has observed, the world-wide phone market is largely pre-paid, and Apple will not be “ceding any market.”
It will also still do everything the iPod Touch can do, even if no voice contract is activated for the device. Pay-as-you-go data plans similar to the 3G iPad may also be made available. It will almost certainly be an unlocked device — at least outside the US. Maybe this will be the year that restriction will be put aside for American users.
iPhone 5 with Voice Assistant
When Apple introduces a new iPhone, the first thought is to what the new killer feature is. Apple always has one killer new feature to focus on. In the case of the iPhone 5, it will be a voice interface. Although many have already noted the hidden presence of Nuance-branded voices and a voice ‘assistant’ in beta builds of the iPhone, most consider this voice control feature to be an evolutionary upgrade to the present feature, a simple implementation of the Apple-owned Siri app or merely matching current Android voice control features.
Apple’s voice assistant feature will go far beyond these previous offerings, and attempt to create a complete hands-free voice interface. In 1997, in a candid exchange with Apple developers, Steve Jobs talked about the future of computers, and many have noted how this vision of the future of computing was remarkably similar to what Apple has executed under his stewardship. In that talk, he offered a very quick remark that voice control would be the next step beyond keyboards for handheld devices. So even though voice recognition has not been a visible priority at Apple, it has been on the minds of the people who work there, with Apple handheld voice patents patents dating back to 2004. The iPhone 5 will be Apple’s bid to create a truly viable and comprehensive voice interface in a scope so far only seen in science fiction.
Hello, computer
It will take requests to check the weather forecast, give stock prices or game scores like Siri already can. It would control iTunes more completely than the current interface, as well as deliver spoken-word reminders instead of alarms. You could vocally request a search for a favorite song on iTunes and buy it. A “voice print” might be used for a pass lock and/or password.
Not all apps lend themselves to voice control, obviously, but the goal of Apple’s voice input will be to have all applications that use the keyboard for input use spoken words whenever possible. In addition, the Siri app’s ability to parse sentences and long instructions will go beyond finding restaurants and movie times, and into iOS control features.
At the 2011 WWDC introduction of iOS 5, there were a few items that seemed to mesh with the idea of voice control. Specifically, the announced Reminders feature almost begs for voice direction. “Remind me to call my wife when I leave the convention,” was Scott Forstall’s example. That sounds more like a spoken command than something you’d type.
This same voice command ability will extend to vital features of iOS, like the new iMessage. Without ever touching the phone, a user could hear a new message spoken to them, dictate a reply, have it read back, corrected, and then sent. No hands involved. Apple has had “voice-directed document correction” patents for nearly 7 years.
In iOS 4, a widely unreported feature was the addition of new voice control commands, such as the ability to confirm choices, ask the details of a song and get the time. So voice control has been a latent priority for a couple of years now, and with the use of Nuance technology, the acknowledged leader in voice recognition, it does seem that Apple has put heavyweight development into a voice control/speech recognition feature.
This speech recognition will use server-based recognition, but for robustness is also is likely to require the use of an A5 or above chip for local speech recognition, making the feature exclusive to the iPhone 5.
Although this is highly speculative, Apple might also try to incorporate web search and artificial intelligence features into voice control, such as “find pictures of a tropical sunrise” or “read me the headlines from the New York Times.” The server farm they’ve built is well capable of such a feat, and integrating IBM’s Watson software could provide AI features. But again, this is pure, undiluted speculation.
This voice interface feature would also be a part of the SDK for developers to put in their own apps, and many should be keen to see how they can alter their interfaces to be as voice friendly as possible. That’s a heads-up, developers. How would you make your app more useful with voice commands?
The Texas Instruments look
The 3rd party cases that have been leaked for the iPhone have indicated that it will be slightly wedge-shaped — not unlike an old calculator from the 70’s. Jonny Ive has consistently demonstrated a retro look in his designs, such as the 50’s Bondi iMac and the recent black-rimmed iMac and iPad displays that recall designs of all-black “futuristic” telecommunications screens in 1960s electronics. (Watch the middle part of 2001 A Space Odyssey for further reference.) Some have speculated it will have a metal back, which would recall the original iPhone and current iPad design. Screen size might increase, as well.
Yet the most interesting element is the extra-wide home button cut-out seen in many cases. What that could represent is open to speculation. Why would only the iPhone 5 have a wide button that presumably adds extra functionality? Why do you need button swiping when screen swiping is already practical and well adopted? Is it an indication that voice control will change the physical layout from previous iPhones? It should be noted that when the first cases for the iPad 2 appeared, many saw the open gap on the bottom-right back and speculated that it was a USB port or an SD card slot. It turned out to be a speaker. With that in mind, that wide “button” opening could be something else entirely.
Expect pricing, color and flash memory capacity to be nearly identical to the current offering. With iCloud, there’s really no imperative need for 64GB. The iPhone 5 may not be carrier locked, but we’ll have to wait and see what the US wireless carriers will allow, and how much the low-cost iPhone may change the rules.
Something to consider
You could reasonably argue that the usefulness of the 40-pin connector is quickly waning. With media syncing covered by the introduction of iCloud, over-the-air update functionality in iOS 5, and AirPlay used instead of speaker docking, the cable is no longer truly necessary. For power, Apple does have inductive charging patents on the record. The connector will still be around for a little while, but look for Apple to get rid of it sooner rather than later.
Wither the Classic
With the advent of the new Apple iCloud service, and principally the over-the-air music syncing feature, Apple wants users to manage their large media libraries on the device. That largely negates the need for the venerable iPod Classic. By retrieving music and video from iCloud, a large local storage solution loses a lot of its’ relevancy. If Apple were considering discontinuing the device, this would be a good time to do it.
The device has not been updated in years and the iPod interface is dated. Look for stock to dwindle as the last production runs may have already been made.
What won’t happen
There is, as of this writing, only one chip set that can do CDMA/GSM and LTE. It is made by Qualcomm, and right now is not being widely used. Barring a real reversal of Apple’s public statements on LTE and it’s power management maturity, it will not engineer a separate LTE phone at the time of the iPhone 5 launch. That means that LTE is off the agenda for 2011.
It does seem almost assured that the new iPhones will be hybrid CDMA and GSM, as that chipset already exists in the Verizon CDMA iPhone variant. Apple’s goal has always been to design and market the iPhone as a world phone, with one design that works everywhere. The Verizon iPhone 4 was made necessary due to the user demand through CDMA providers both in the US and in China and the planned 15-month window between the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 5 announcements. The iPhone 5 will once again unify the design, but not yet support LTE.
iPhone 6 in June? No. Fall Is the new spot for the iPhone product launches. Of note, Apple has a target of “a revolution every 90 days,” and announces major products on a quarterly or seasonal basis. The fall announcements are focused on the holiday buying season and is used to update products aimed at the widest possible mass market. Previously, that had been the iPod, the dethroned sales king of Apple’s consumer product line. Now, the iPhone is the new king, and it will take the fall slot. That’s also why the announcement will be as early as possible in the fall, as Apple wants to have time to address any ramp-up production issues and be going strong by the time the Christmas season hits in late November.
There will be no iPad “3” announcement.